Open questions

10 questions in utilities. Every one has a yes or no answer, a date, and a source you can check yourself. Why so few?

All 55money 6screens 8sport 1the draw 19the vote 11utilities 10

This week 1

utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 13 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 12 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs

This month 5

utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 20 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 19 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 27 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 26 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in October 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in October 2026?

South Africa has now gone more than 200 days without load-shedding and Eskom is forecasting a stable winter. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 03 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 02 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs

Later 4

utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 10 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 09 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 17 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 16 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in November 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 NOV 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in November 2026?

South Africa has now gone more than 200 days without load-shedding and Eskom is forecasting a stable winter. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 NOV 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status