Leaderboard

6 players scored so far. Provisional means fewer than 15 settled calls.

56days left in Season One, ends election week, 30 November 2026. How you are scored

Calibration, the one that counts

How close your prices were to what actually happened. Lower is better. 0.25 is a coin flip.

1
Sandstormprovisional0.173
12 settled · better than a coin flip · ranked on 0.208 until 15 calls
2
Nostrachanniz0.194
18 settled · about a coin flip
3
CrystalBallerprovisional0.179
8 settled · better than a coin flip · ranked on 0.219 until 15 calls
4
Jimmoprovisional0.174
7 settled · better than a coin flip · ranked on 0.219 until 15 calls
5
Ashutoshprovisional0.187
4 settled · about a coin flip · ranked on 0.232 until 15 calls
6
Varrizprovisional0.263
4 settled · worse than guessing · ranked on 0.254 until 15 calls
Why this one

Backing a 95c favourite that loses costs you about four times what a cautious 55c call costs. That is deliberate: it is the only board you cannot farm by buying longshots and getting lucky once, which is why it is the headline.

Edge

How far you beat the price you traded at, per rand risked.

1
Sandstormprovisional+10.8%
12 settled · R3,227.91 risked · ranked on +10.5% until 15 calls
2
Jimmoprovisional-5.4%
7 settled · R3,092.48 risked · ranked on -5.3% until 15 calls
3
Nostrachanniz-13.3%
18 settled · R12,261.99 risked
4
Ashutoshprovisional-57.0%
4 settled · R179.10 risked · ranked on -36.6% until 15 calls
5
CrystalBallerprovisional-42.5%
8 settled · R2,082.99 risked · ranked on -40.6% until 15 calls
6
Varrizprovisional-60.1%
4 settled · R1,427.08 risked · ranked on -56.2% until 15 calls
Why this one

A ratio rather than a total, so a big bankroll and a lot of volume do not flatter it. It measures how far you beat the price you traded at, not how much you traded. Quoted before the 5% fee, deliberately: this is a measure of your prices, and charging it the fee would score the fee instead. Profit below is after the fee, so the two can disagree on a position that was well priced but thin.

Breadth

How much of the board you have played. Needs 4 areas to qualify.

1
Nostrachanniz18
4 of 6 areas
2
Sandstormprovisional12
4 of 6 areas
3
CrystalBallerprovisional8
4 of 6 areas
4
Jimmoprovisional7
5 of 6 areas
5
Ashutoshprovisional4
3 of 6 areas
6
Varrizprovisional4
4 of 6 areas
Why this one

Capped at 10 settled calls per area, so range beats volume: 10 calls in one area score the same as 30. Ties break on calibration, so it cannot reward being wrong everywhere.

Accuracy

How often you were simply right.

1
Nostrachanniz67%
12 right of 18
2
Sandstormprovisional67%
8 right of 12 · ranked on 59% until 15 calls
3
Jimmoprovisional71%
5 right of 7 · ranked on 59% until 15 calls
4
Ashutoshprovisional50%
2 right of 4 · ranked on 50% until 15 calls
5
CrystalBallerprovisional38%
3 right of 8 · ranked on 44% until 15 calls
6
Varrizprovisional25%
1 right of 4 · ranked on 43% until 15 calls
Why this one

Easy to farm by only ever backing favourites, which is why no season board ranks on it. Here because people want to know.

Profit

Play money won and lost, after fees.

1
Sandstorm+R246.92
12 settled · R3,227.91 risked · R102.17 fees
2
AshutoshR-111.06
4 settled · R179.10 risked · R8.96 fees
3
JimmoR-323.12
7 settled · R3,092.48 risked · R154.64 fees
4
VarrizR-929.44
4 settled · R1,427.08 risked · R71.36 fees
5
CrystalBallerR-950.20
8 settled · R2,082.99 risked · R64.21 fees
6
NostrachannizR-2,240.14
18 settled · R12,261.99 risked · R609.15 fees
Why this one

Rewards volume and a big bankroll as much as judgement, and one lucky longshot most of all. For interest only. No season board ranks on it. This is the one figure here that is net of the 5% fee, because it is the one that claims to be money: it should match what actually left your balance.

On the board now

Who is playing. Not a skill board, just who turned up.

1
Nostrachanniz6 areas
24 calls · R16,116.52 staked
2
Sandstorm5 areas
16 calls · R8,939.85 staked
3
Jimmo5 areas
8 calls · R3,330.31 staked
4
Varriz5 areas
7 calls · R2,616.51 staked
5
CrystalBaller4 areas
8 calls · R2,082.99 staked
6
Ashutosh3 areas
4 calls · R179.10 staked
Why this one

Ranked on how much of the catalogue you have touched. Range across the board is what this season exists to measure, so it is worth showing even before anything has been graded.

How a thin record is ranked

Ranking on a raw score would put whoever got one lucky call right at the top of the board and keep them there. Hiding everyone until they reach 15 settled questions would leave this page empty for the first month of the season. Neither is much use.

So each score is pulled toward the score of someone who knows nothing, by how little evidence stands behind it:

ranked = (n × yours + 10 × baseline) ÷ (n + 10)

One perfect call ranks near a coin flip. Fifteen good ones rank near their true score. The number in the table is always your real score, unadjusted; only the order of the list uses the formula above, and the pre-registered analysis uses the real one throughout.