0 players have placed calls. Nothing has settled yet, so there is nothing to score: the skill boards below fill in on their own as questions resolve.
Who is playing, before anything has been graded. Ranked on how much of the catalogue you have touched, because range is what this season is trying to measure. This is not a skill board. Being here says you turned up, nothing more.
| # | Player | Areas | Calls | At risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nobody has placed a call yet. | |||||
Your Brier score: how close the prices you paid were to what actually happened. Lower is better, 0.25 is a coin flip. It punishes confident wrongness, so backing a 95c favourite that loses costs you far more than a 55c call. It is the only board you cannot farm by buying longshots, which is why it is the headline one.
| # | Player | Called | Brier | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nobody has settled a call yet. | |||||
Profit for every rand risked. Normalises for bankroll and volume, so it measures how far you beat the price you traded at, not how much you traded.
| # | Player | Called | Risked | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nobody has settled a call yet. | |||||
Settled calls across the catalogue, capped at 10 per area so range beats volume. Needs 4 areas to qualify, and the tie-break is calibration, so it cannot pay for being wrong everywhere.
| # | Player | Called | Areas | Breadth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nobody has settled a call yet. | |||||
Share of settled calls that paid out. Easy to farm by only ever backing favourites, which is why it is not the headline.
| # | Player | Right | Called | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nobody has settled a call yet. | |||||
Raw winnings. Rewards volume and a big bankroll as much as judgement, and rewards one lucky longshot most of all. Here for interest only. No season board ranks on it.
| # | Player | Called | Risked | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nobody has settled a call yet. | |||||
Ranking on a raw score would put whoever got one lucky call right at the top of the board and keep them there. Hiding everyone until they reach 15 settled questions would leave this page empty for the first month of the season. Neither is much use.
So each score is pulled toward the score of someone who knows nothing, by how little evidence stands behind it:
ranked = (n × yours + 10 × baseline) ÷ (n + 10)
One perfect call ranks near a coin flip. Fifteen good ones rank near their true score. The number in the table is always your real score, unadjusted; only the order of the list uses the formula above, and the pre-registered analysis uses the real one throughout.
A person reads every one of these. Tell us what happened and we will come back to you.