Everyone reckons. Few are right.

Yes-or-no questions about South Africa. R1 000 free to play with. Find out if you actually know.

Load-shedding. The Vaal Dam. The petrol price. Who wins the ward.

YaNoBru turns the arguments South Africans are already having into questions with one answer and one date. Everyone starts with R1 000 of play money, no deposits, nothing to lose, and every price on the board is set by what the rest of the country reckons.

At the end of the season the best forecasters top the boards. Not the luckiest, not the loudest. The ones who were right about the odds.

Open questions

64 questions. Every one has a yes or no answer, a date, and a source you can check yourself. Why so few?

All 64money 10screens 16sport 6the draw 5the vote 5utilities 22

This week 4

the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 07 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 07 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 11 August 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 11 AUG 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 11 August 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 11 AUG 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 11 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 11 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown

This month 13

the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 14 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 14 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 18 August 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 18 AUG 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 18 August 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 18 AUG 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 18 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 18 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 21 August 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 21 AUG 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
sport

Will the Springboks beat the All Blacks on 22 August 2026?

Four Tests in three weeks, Ellis Park, Cape Town, FNB, then Baltimore. The Rugby Championship was scrapped this year to make room for it. A draw resolves No.

52c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 22 AUG 2026, 16:45 SASTSA Rugby, match centre
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 25 August 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 25 AUG 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 25 August 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 25 AUG 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
sport

Will the Springboks beat the All Blacks on 29 August 2026?

Four Tests in three weeks, Ellis Park, Cape Town, FNB, then Baltimore. The Rugby Championship was scrapped this year to make room for it. A draw resolves No.

52c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 29 AUG 2026, 16:45 SASTSA Rugby, match centre
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 01 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 01 SEP 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 01 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 01 SEP 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in August 2026?

South Africa has now gone more than 200 days without load-shedding and Eskom is forecasting a stable winter. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 02 SEP 2026, 10:00 SASTEskom, power system status
sport

Will the Springboks beat the All Blacks on 05 September 2026?

Four Tests in three weeks, Ellis Park, Cape Town, FNB, then Baltimore. The Rugby Championship was scrapped this year to make room for it. A draw resolves No.

52c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 05 SEP 2026, 16:45 SASTSA Rugby, match centre

Later 47

utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 08 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 08 SEP 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 08 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 08 SEP 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
sport

Will the Springboks win the 12 September 2026 series against the All Blacks?

Four Tests, and you need three of them. Two-all leaves the series drawn and resolves this No.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 12 SEP 2026, 19:00 SASTSA Rugby, match centre
sport

Will the Springboks beat the All Blacks on 12 September 2026?

Four Tests in three weeks, Ellis Park, Cape Town, FNB, then Baltimore. The Rugby Championship was scrapped this year to make room for it. A draw resolves No.

52c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 12 SEP 2026, 20:45 SASTSA Rugby, match centre
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 15 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 SEP 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 15 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 SEP 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will the Reserve Bank raise the repo rate at the 17 September 2026 meeting?

After a year of cuts the mood has flipped. The MPC held at 7% in July on a 4-2 split, the Governor warned about inflation on the upside, and June's CPI printed 5.0%. A hike is genuinely on the table.

35c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 17 SEP 2026, 15:00 SASTSARB, MPC statements
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 22 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 22 SEP 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 22 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 22 SEP 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for August 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 SEP 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 29 September 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 29 SEP 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 29 September 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 29 SEP 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in September 2026?

South Africa has now gone more than 200 days without load-shedding and Eskom is forecasting a stable winter. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 02 OCT 2026, 10:00 SASTEskom, power system status
money

Will the petrol price go up in September 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in September 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 06 OCT 2026, 12:00 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 06 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 06 OCT 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 06 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 06 OCT 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 13 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 13 OCT 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 13 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 13 OCT 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 20 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 20 OCT 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 20 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 20 OCT 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for September 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 OCT 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 27 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 27 OCT 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 27 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 27 OCT 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
sport

Will Orlando Pirates beat Kaizer Chiefs on 31 October 2026?

The Soweto Derby, at Orlando. Pirates are defending champions and at home. A draw resolves No.

44c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 16:45 SASTPremier Soccer League
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in October 2026?

South Africa has now gone more than 200 days without load-shedding and Eskom is forecasting a stable winter. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 02 NOV 2026, 10:00 SASTEskom, power system status
money

Will the petrol price go up in October 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 03 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 NOV 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 03 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 NOV 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
the vote

Will the ANC get less than 40% in the 07 November 2026 local elections?

The ANC took 63.7% in 2011, 53.9% in 2016 and 45.6% in 2021, roughly eight points a cycle. It got 40.2% at the 2024 national election. 40% is the line everyone is watching.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 18:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will turnout beat 47.1% at the 07 November 2026 local elections?

2021 saw the lowest turnout since 1994 at 47.1%, down from about 58% in the two elections before it. Whether that was a one-off or the new normal gets settled here.

45c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 18:00 SASTIEC, election results
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in October 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 06 NOV 2026, 12:00 SASTSouth African Weather Service
the vote

Will more than 66 councils be hung after the 09 November 2026 local elections?

Hung councils went from about 30 in 2016 to 66 in 2021, and coalition chaos has defined local government ever since. This asks whether it gets worse again.

65c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 06 NOV 2026, 18:00 SASTIEC, seat allocations
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 10 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 10 NOV 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 10 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 10 NOV 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will house price inflation beat 4% for August 2026?

Stats SA builds this index from every single property transfer registered at the Deeds Office, not estate agent estimates. It is the closest thing to a true national house price.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 NOV 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Residential Property Price Index
the vote

Will the Madlanga Commission deliver its final report by 16 November 2026?

The inquiry into police and organised crime, set up after Lieutenant-General Mkhwanazi's allegations. Its deadline has already moved three times, March, then August, now 16 November.

40c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 16 NOV 2026, 23:59 SASTThe Presidency, media statements
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 17 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line. This asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 17 NOV 2026, 12:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 17 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 17 NOV 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for October 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 NOV 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 24 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 24 NOV 2026, 14:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10
the vote

Will Ramaphosa win the Phala Phala review handed down 28 November 2026?

The President is asking the court to throw out the panel report behind the impeachment process. He already won an interim interdict 2-1 freezing the hearings. Partial relief resolves this No.

45c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 28 NOV 2026, 10:00 SASTJudiciary, judgments
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in November 2026?

South Africa has now gone more than 200 days without load-shedding and Eskom is forecasting a stable winter. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 02 DEC 2026, 10:00 SASTEskom, power system status
money

Will the petrol price go up in November 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 DEC 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in November 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 06 DEC 2026, 12:00 SASTSouth African Weather Service
money

Will house price inflation beat 4% for September 2026?

Stats SA builds this index from every single property transfer registered at the Deeds Office, not estate agent estimates. It is the closest thing to a true national house price.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 DEC 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Residential Property Price Index
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for November 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 DEC 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index