Everyone reckons. Few are right.

S.A prediction market in the making

Yes-or-no questions about South Africa. R10 000 free to play with. Find out if you actually know.

Load-shedding. The Vaal Dam. The petrol price. Who wins the ward.

YaNoBru turns the arguments South Africans are already having into questions with one answer and one date. Everyone starts with R10 000 of play money, no deposits, nothing to lose, and every price on the board is set by what the rest of the country reckons.

At the end of the season the best forecasters top the boards. Not the luckiest, not the loudest. The ones who were right about the odds.

Open questions

55 questions. Every one has a yes or no answer, a date, and a source you can check yourself. Why so few?

All 55money 6screens 8sport 1the draw 19the vote 11utilities 10

This week 4

screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 06 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

49c
market-implied chance of yes11c
CLOSES 06 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10 TV shows
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 06 October 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 06 OCT 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 09 October 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 09 OCT 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 13 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 12 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs

This month 30

screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 13 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 13 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10 TV shows
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 13 October 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 13 OCT 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 16 October 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 16 OCT 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 20 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 19 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 20 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 20 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10 TV shows
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 20 October 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 20 OCT 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for September 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 OCT 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 23 October 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 OCT 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 27 October 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 26 OCT 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
money

Will the petrol price go up in November 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 26 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 27 October 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 27 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10 TV shows
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 27 October 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 27 OCT 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 30 October 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 OCT 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
sport

Will Orlando Pirates beat Kaizer Chiefs on 31 October 2026?

The Soweto Derby, at Orlando. Pirates are defending champions and at home. A draw resolves No.

36c
market-implied chance of yes8c
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 14:00 SASTPremier Soccer League
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in October 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in October 2026?

South Africa has now gone more than 200 days without load-shedding and Eskom is forecasting a stable winter. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 31 OCT 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 03 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 02 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 03 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10 TV shows
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 03 November 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 NOV 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the vote

Will the ANC get less than 40% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The ANC took 63.7% in 2011, 53.9% in 2016 and 45.6% in 2021, roughly eight points a cycle. It got 40.2% at the 2024 national election. 40% is the line everyone is watching.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will more than 66 councils be hung after the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Hung councils went from about 30 in 2016 to 66 in 2021, and coalition chaos has defined local government ever since. This asks whether it gets worse again.

65c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, seat allocations
the vote

Will turnout beat 47.1% at the 04 November 2026 local elections?

2021 saw the lowest turnout since 1994 at 47.1%, down from about 58% in the two elections before it. Whether that was a one-off or the new normal gets settled here.

45c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the DA get more than 25% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The DA took 21.6% in 2021 and 21.8% at the 2024 national election. It has barely moved in a decade. 25% would be a genuine breakout rather than the usual shuffle.

35c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the EFF get more than 12% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The EFF took 10.3% in 2021 and about 9.5% at the 2024 national election. MK has been feeding on the same base since. 12% would mean the decline has stopped.

35c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the MK Party get more than 10% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

MK did not exist in 2021. It took about 15% at the 2024 national election, most of it in KwaZulu-Natal, and this is its first local government election. National support does not automatically become ward support, and nobody knows the conversion rate.

45c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will any single party get more than 50% nationally in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The ANC last cleared half at 53.9% in 2016. It managed 45.6% in 2021 and 40.2% at the 2024 national election. No other party has ever come close. This is the question of whether anyone still commands a majority of South Africans.

8c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the Johannesburg council be hung after the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Johannesburg has been hung since 2016 and has churned through mayors ever since. Whether that is now permanent is the single most consequential local government question in the country.

85c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the DA win an outright majority in Cape Town in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Cape Town is the one metro that has not spent a decade in coalition chaos, and the DA's outright hold on it is the party's central claim to competence. ActionSA and the Patriotic Alliance are both spending money there.

75c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will the ANC get less than 40% in eThekwini in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

KwaZulu-Natal is where MK did the most damage in 2024, and eThekwini is the prize. This is the clearest test of whether that was a national protest vote or a permanent realignment.

55c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results
the vote

Will turnout be below 40% at the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Turnout was 45.79% in 2021 and 57.94% in 2016. Below 40% would be a collapse, and would say more about how South Africans feel about local government than any party's result.

25c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTIEC, election results

Later 21

the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 06 November 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 06 NOV 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 10 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 09 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 10 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 10 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10 TV shows
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 10 November 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 10 NOV 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 13 November 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 13 NOV 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
money

Will house price inflation beat 4% for August 2026?

Stats SA builds this index from every single property transfer registered at the Deeds Office, not estate agent estimates. It is the closest thing to a true national house price.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 NOV 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Residential Property Price Index
utilities

Will the Vaal Dam still be over 100% full in the week of 17 November 2026?

The Vaal supplies Gauteng and can hold more than 100% of its official capacity after good rain. It has been sitting just above the line, this asks whether it holds.

72c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 16 NOV 2026, 00:00 SASTDWS, weekly state of the reservoirs
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 17 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 17 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10 TV shows
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 17 November 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 17 NOV 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 20 November 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 20 NOV 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for October 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 NOV 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
screens

Will 3 or more South African shows be in the Netflix SA top 10 in the week of 24 November 2026?

Netflix publishes its South African top 10 every week. Local titles like The River and The Polygamist have been holding spots against international shows.

38c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 24 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTNetflix, South Africa top 10 TV shows
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 24 November 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 24 NOV 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 27 November 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 27 NOV 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
utilities

Will Cape Town hit 35°C in November 2026?

Measured at the Cape Town International Airport station, which is the official record for the city. One hot day is all it takes.

30c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 NOV 2026, 23:59 SASTSouth African Weather Service
utilities

Will Eskom implement any load-shedding in November 2026?

South Africa has now gone more than 200 days without load-shedding and Eskom is forecasting a stable winter. One hour of Stage 1 anywhere in the month resolves this Yes.

12c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 30 NOV 2026, 23:59 SASTEskom, power system status
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 01 December 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 01 DEC 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 04 December 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 04 DEC 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
the draw

Will anyone win the PowerBall jackpot on 08 December 2026?

Division 1 needs all five numbers plus the PowerBall. Most draws nobody gets it and the jackpot rolls over, which is exactly why the ones that do land are news.

22c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 08 DEC 2026, 20:30 SASTNational Lottery, results and prize breakdown
money

Will house price inflation beat 4% for September 2026?

Stats SA builds this index from every single property transfer registered at the Deeds Office, not estate agent estimates. It is the closest thing to a true national house price.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 DEC 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Residential Property Price Index
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for November 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 DEC 2026, 09:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index