Open questions

10 questions in money. Every one has a yes or no answer, a date, and a source you can check yourself. Why so few?

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Later 10

money

Will the Reserve Bank raise the repo rate at the 17 September 2026 meeting?

After a year of cuts the mood has flipped. The MPC held at 7% in July on a 4-2 split, the Governor warned about inflation on the upside, and June's CPI printed 5.0%. A hike is genuinely on the table.

35c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 17 SEP 2026, 15:00 SASTSARB, MPC statements
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for August 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 SEP 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
money

Will the petrol price go up in September 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 OCT 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for September 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 OCT 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
money

Will the petrol price go up in October 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 NOV 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
money

Will house price inflation beat 4% for August 2026?

Stats SA builds this index from every single property transfer registered at the Deeds Office, not estate agent estimates. It is the closest thing to a true national house price.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 NOV 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Residential Property Price Index
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for October 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 NOV 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index
money

Will the petrol price go up in November 2026?

The petrol price is reset at the start of every month by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, driven by the oil price and the rand. Any increase at all resolves this Yes.

42c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 03 DEC 2026, 06:00 SASTDMPR, monthly fuel price
money

Will house price inflation beat 4% for September 2026?

Stats SA builds this index from every single property transfer registered at the Deeds Office, not estate agent estimates. It is the closest thing to a true national house price.

62c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 15 DEC 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Residential Property Price Index
money

Will inflation come in above 4.5% for November 2026?

4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.

68c
market-implied chance of yes
CLOSES 23 DEC 2026, 11:00 SASTStats SA, Consumer Price Index