4.5% is the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target band, the number it actually steers towards. Above it and rate cuts get harder; below it and they get easier. June 2026 came in at 5.0%.
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This market resolves YES if the headline consumer price index annual percentage change first published by Statistics South Africa for the reference month is greater than 4.5%. It resolves NO in every other case.
Settles from: Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index statistical release P0141 (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0141). Closes 2026-10-23 11:00 SAST. Decided 2026-10-23 11:30 SAST. Only the first published figure is used. Subsequent revisions by Statistics South Africa do not affect settlement.
Check the source yourself: Stats SA, Consumer Price Index
If any of the following happens, the question is voided and every stake goes back. It scores for nobody either way.
Statistics South Africa does not publish statistical release P0141 for the reference month within 45 calendar days of the scheduled release date; Statistics South Africa discontinues the headline consumer price index or changes its definition such that a year-on-year figure for the reference month is not publish
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