Open questions

Will the ANC get less than 40% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The ANC took 63.7% in 2011, 53.9% in 2016 and 45.6% in 2021, roughly eight points a cycle. It got 40.2% at the 2024 national election. 40% is the line everyone is watching.

Will more than 66 councils be hung after the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Hung councils went from about 30 in 2016 to 66 in 2021, and coalition chaos has defined local government ever since. This asks whether it gets worse again.

Will turnout beat 47.1% at the 04 November 2026 local elections?

2021 saw the lowest turnout since 1994 at 47.1%, down from about 58% in the two elections before it. Whether that was a one-off or the new normal gets settled here.

Will the DA get more than 25% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The DA took 21.6% in 2021 and 21.8% at the 2024 national election. It has barely moved in a decade. 25% would be a genuine breakout rather than the usual shuffle.

Will the EFF get more than 12% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The EFF took 10.3% in 2021 and about 9.5% at the 2024 national election. MK has been feeding on the same base since. 12% would mean the decline has stopped.

Will the MK Party get more than 10% in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

MK did not exist in 2021. It took about 15% at the 2024 national election, most of it in KwaZulu-Natal, and this is its first local government election. National support does not automatically become ward support, and nobody knows the conversion rate.

Will any single party get more than 50% nationally in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

The ANC last cleared half at 53.9% in 2016. It managed 45.6% in 2021 and 40.2% at the 2024 national election. No other party has ever come close. This is the question of whether anyone still commands a majority of South Africans.

Will the Johannesburg council be hung after the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Johannesburg has been hung since 2016 and has churned through mayors ever since. Whether that is now permanent is the single most consequential local government question in the country.

Will the DA win an outright majority in Cape Town in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Cape Town is the one metro that has not spent a decade in coalition chaos, and the DA's outright hold on it is the party's central claim to competence. ActionSA and the Patriotic Alliance are both spending money there.

Will the ANC get less than 40% in eThekwini in the 04 November 2026 local elections?

KwaZulu-Natal is where MK did the most damage in 2024, and eThekwini is the prize. This is the clearest test of whether that was a national protest vote or a permanent realignment.

Will turnout be below 40% at the 04 November 2026 local elections?

Turnout was 45.79% in 2021 and 57.94% in 2016. Below 40% would be a collapse, and would say more about how South Africans feel about local government than any party's result.