5 questions in the vote. Every one has a yes or no answer, a date, and a source you can check yourself. Why so few?
Will the ANC get less than 40% in the 07 November 2026 local elections?
The ANC took 63.7% in 2011, 53.9% in 2016 and 45.6% in 2021, roughly eight points a cycle. It got 40.2% at the 2024 national election. 40% is the line everyone is watching.
Will turnout beat 47.1% at the 07 November 2026 local elections?
2021 saw the lowest turnout since 1994 at 47.1%, down from about 58% in the two elections before it. Whether that was a one-off or the new normal gets settled here.
Will more than 66 councils be hung after the 09 November 2026 local elections?
Hung councils went from about 30 in 2016 to 66 in 2021, and coalition chaos has defined local government ever since. This asks whether it gets worse again.
Will the Madlanga Commission deliver its final report by 16 November 2026?
The inquiry into police and organised crime, set up after Lieutenant-General Mkhwanazi's allegations. Its deadline has already moved three times, March, then August, now 16 November.
Will Ramaphosa win the Phala Phala review handed down 28 November 2026?
The President is asking the court to throw out the panel report behind the impeachment process. He already won an interim interdict 2-1 freezing the hearings. Partial relief resolves this No.
A person reads every one of these. Tell us what happened and we will come back to you.