Turnout was 45.79% in 2021 and 57.94% in 2016. Below 40% would be a collapse, and would say more about how South Africans feel about local government than any party's result.
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This market resolves YES if national voter turnout declared by the Electoral Commission is below 40.0% of registered voters. It resolves NO in every other case.
Settles from: Electoral Commission of South Africa final declared results for the 2026 Local Government Elections (https://www.elections.org.za/). Closes 2026-11-04 06:00 SAST. Decided 2026-11-10 18:00 SAST. Turnout is votes cast as a percentage of registered voters nationally, as declared by the Electoral Commission. It is not a percentage of the voting-age population, which is a different and lower figure.
Check the source yourself: IEC, election results
If any of the following happens, the question is voided and every stake goes back. It scores for nobody either way.
The election is postponed beyond the constitutionally prescribed window ending 30 January 2027; The Electoral Commission does not declare final national results within 30 calendar days of polling day; The results are set aside by a competent court before determination; The Electoral Commission does not publish a national proportional representation vote share by party
Think this reads two ways? and we will tighten the wording or void it.
A person reads every one of these. Tell us what happened and we will come back to you.