KwaZulu-Natal is where MK did the most damage in 2024, and eThekwini is the prize. This is the clearest test of whether that was a national protest vote or a permanent realignment.
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This market resolves YES if the African National Congress share of total valid votes on the proportional representation ballot in the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, as declared by the Electoral Commission, is below 40.0%. It resolves NO in every other case.
Settles from: Electoral Commission of South Africa final declared results for the 2026 Local Government Elections (https://www.elections.org.za/). Closes 2026-11-04 06:00 SAST. Decided 2026-11-10 18:00 SAST. The figure used is the party's share of total valid votes cast in the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality on the proportional representation ballot, as published in the Electoral Commission's final declared results. Ward results, council seat counts, and any coalitions formed after the election are irrelevant to this market.
Check the source yourself: IEC, election results
If any of the following happens, the question is voided and every stake goes back. It scores for nobody either way.
The election is postponed beyond the constitutionally prescribed window ending 30 January 2027; The Electoral Commission does not declare final results for the municipality within 30 calendar days of polling day; The results are set aside by a competent court before determination; The Electoral Commission does not publish a proportional representation vote share by party for the municipality
Think this reads two ways? and we will tighten the wording or void it.
A person reads every one of these. Tell us what happened and we will come back to you.