The ANC took 63.7% in 2011, 53.9% in 2016 and 45.6% in 2021, roughly eight points a cycle. It got 40.2% at the 2024 national election. 40% is the line everyone is watching.
A YES bid at 60c and a NO bid at 36c meet when they add to 100. That pair funds one contract between them.
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This market resolves YES if the African National Congress share of total national valid votes declared by the Electoral Commission is below 40.0%. It resolves NO in every other case.
A person reads every one of these. Tell us what happened and we will come back to you.