The ANC took 63.7% in 2011, 53.9% in 2016 and 45.6% in 2021, roughly eight points a cycle. It got 40.2% at the 2024 national election. 40% is the line everyone is watching.
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This market resolves YES if the African National Congress share of total national valid votes declared by the Electoral Commission is below 40.0%. It resolves NO in every other case.
Settles from: Electoral Commission of South Africa final declared results for the 2026 Local Government Elections (https://www.elections.org.za/). Closes 2026-11-04 06:00 SAST. Decided 2026-11-10 18:00 SAST. The figure used is the party's share of total valid votes cast nationally across all municipalities, on the proportional representation ballot, as published in the Electoral Commission's final declared results. Ward results, council seat counts, and any coalitions formed after the election are irrelevant to this market.
Check the source yourself: IEC, election results
If any of the following happens, the question is voided and every stake goes back. It scores for nobody either way.
The election is postponed beyond the constitutionally prescribed window ending 30 January 2027; The Electoral Commission does not declare final national results within 30 calendar days of polling day; The results are set aside by a competent court before determination; The Electoral Commission does not publish a national proportional representation vote share by party
Think this reads two ways? and we will tighten the wording or void it.
A person reads every one of these. Tell us what happened and we will come back to you.